Tottenham can be overtaken by Newcastle United – It really is on

Tottenham got lucky on Saturday.

Newcastle United won 4-0 but it could and should have been so much worse for the boys from North London.

After Werner cleared the Gallowgate End early on, Tottenham never really created anything much of note, despite dominating the possession.

That dominant possession mainly involving the goalkeeper wondering what on earth should I do, as United’s high press stopped them easily playing out, then when they were forced to eventually try and play it long when pressed, the Newcastle midfielders and defenders simply too powerful and wanting it more.

A great victory for Newcastle but still in reality a glass ceiling of no higher than sixth place possible.

Or is it…?

As you can see, with only six matches remaining for each of the two clubs, Tottenham 10 points higher, though Newcastle have a one goal better goal difference.

Tottenham have had an interesting season, everything fell right for them as they picked up 26 points in their opening 10 matches and were top of the table. Incredible luck I thought at the time as they looked decent but nothing special to me, that luck summed up by the shocking (but hilarious!) error by match officials that gifted them the win over Liverpool at the end of September.

The next seven months though after that victory over Liverpool, Tottenham have won Premier League matches against the following Premier League clubs:

Luton (x2), Forest (x2), Everton, Brentford, Palace (x2), Bournemouth, Fulham, Brighton, Newcastle, Villa

So 13 PL wins since that fluked September 2023 one over Liverpool BUT 10 of these 13 wins have been against clubs who are now bottom nine in the table as we near the end of the season.

Tottenham have been flat track bullies, pretty much entirely relying on wins against the weakest teams.

The three exceptions in these near seven months were a win over a very inconsistent Brighton who are only just clinging on to top half now, Tottenham caught Newcastle at our weakest possible time as Nick Pope was added to the injury list in early December, then a freak 4-0 at Villa where everything went wrong for the home side and the opposite for Tottenham.

To sum up these past near seven months, Tottenham have been nothing special, which maybe makes it a bit less of a surprise as to why Newcastle battered them on Saturday. Spurs also won only one of three domestic cup matches this season and that was against second bottom of the Premier League, Burnley.

So with 10 points between the two clubs and only 18 points each to play for, could Newcastle United really catch Tottenham and finish fifth?

Well Newcastle United showed on Saturday what they are capable of even without 13 first team squad players not available as starters, plus an 11 days gap between games, with the prospect of some really big players potentially back very soon.

The way the fixtures have worked out as well, Newcastle with what looks the easiest of all on paper in terms of remaining matches, Tottenham the exact opposite.