Scouting Atletico: data-driven takeaways

A resurgence in xG, return of the typical defense and much more.

Nine victories against Carlo Ancelotti puts Diego Simeone second only to Luciano Spalletti in head-to-head wins over the Italian manager. Eight of those have come against Real Madrid, with five in LaLiga – including a notable run of three consecutive league wins between 2013-14 and 2015-16. While Simeone’s league record against Ancelotti’s Madrid is impressive, he’s found less consistent success in cup competitions, though he’s still managed to secure important victories there too.

The immediately impending fixture, however, is all about LaLiga. First vs. Second — a point between them and Barcelona lurking just behind. As has become the norm with Madrid derbies, much of the pre-match talk has centered away from the pitch — this time Real Madrid’s complaints about LaLiga’s refereeing standards have predictably ruffled feathers across the city. But amid all the noise, there’s a football match to be played, against a very good side.

The 19-game rolling averages of non-penalty goals and non-penalty expected goals illustrate Atlético’s attacking trends over the past two campaigns. From late in the 2022-23 season into the first half of 2023-24, the team enjoyed a pronounced finishing edge, with actual returns consistently outstripping the underlying numbers. Yet as the 2023-24 season winds down, results have begun aligning more closely with expectations, reflecting the natural ebb and flow of form. In recent matches, however, there are signs that Atlético’s trajectory is once again on the upswing.

On the other end of the pitch, Atletico are currently near their 2022-23 form where opponents are not creating as much vs. Atletico and not converting the chances they are creating. Atletico have improved their defense multiple folds since the start of the season.

Atletico are sharp on the mid-third this season. Only Real Madrid and Espanyol have allowed fewer touches from their opponents than Atletico in the mid-third of the pitch this season. The following visualizations are based data until Matchday 20.