Jude Bellingham’s Ballon d’Or is far from secure

Jude Bellingham’s Ballon d’Or is far from secure – now is the time for Real Madrid’s star man to step up and seal the Golden Ball

The England midfielder needs a strong end to the campaign to secure football’s biggest individual prize even after his fast start in Spain

Back in October, as Lionel Messi collected the eighth Ballon d’Or of his illustrious career, there was a feeling that the 2024 winner was already known. Jude Bellingham had spent his first three months at Real Madrid ripping up the club’s record-books, with some of Karim Benzema and Cristiano Ronaldo’s early numbers already eclipsed. There was a school of thought – and genuine belief to come with it – that Bellingham could find the net 40 times in his debut campaign in Madrid.

And even if he didn’t hit that mark, the calibre of his performances were something to behold. He weaved through defenders at the Diego Maradona Stadium to beat Napoli. He scored twice to beat Barcelona in his first Clasico. Girona, Union Berlin and others were all taken down on the strength of Bellingham’s virtuosic showings alone.

Since then, though, things have rather slowed up for the England midfielder. Goals have become fewer and farther between, while injuries and suspensions have impacted what looked set to be a record-breaking campaign.

Still, Bellingham remains the front-runner for football’s biggest individual prize, and now, he has the chance to reaffirm that status. The next few months will be the ultimate test of his quality, with Euro 2024 just around the corner. First, though, he will have to prove his worth by leading Madrid past tournament-favourites Manchester City in the Champions League.

Bellingham’s BDO case

Bellingham hit the ground running in a Madrid shirt, scoring three in his first two games. In the months that followed, he bagged winning goals, crucial assists, and also embodied the spirit of Carlo Ancelotti’s revamped side. He may have been a new face, but there Bellingham was, flying into slide tackles, complaining to referees, and shouting in Spanish after finding the net.

He had heard Gareth Bale’s warnings about failing to connect with the fans, and his arms-spread celebration was ubiquitous. Bellingham was Madrid, and everyone at Santiago Bernabeu seemed to know it.

For a long time, that made him the unanimous pick for the 2024 Ballon d’Or. Not only was Bellingham scoring at a better rate than anyone on the continent, he was also doing so for a European heavyweight. A 20-year-old was carrying one of the biggest clubs in the world.

Drop in output

Bellingham remains the Golden Ball frontrunner, but things have changed. For some time, Bellingham was on pace for 40 goals and 20 assists, and was earning comparisons to Zinedine Zidane. Ancelotti cooled expectations, suggesting that perhaps 20 goals would be a more reasonable target for a player who – despite his prowess – is still very much a box-to-box midfielder.

He still has 30 goal involvements in 32 games, but his grip on La Liga’s Pichichi awed for the season’s top goal-scorer is loosening after Girona’s Artem Dovbyk and Osasuna’s Ante Budimir joined him at the top of the charts on 16 strikes each.

Bellingham’s red card against Valencia in early March and the two-match suspension that followed stalled some of the momentum of his campaign, as did the dislocated shoulder and sprained ankle injuries that hit him either side of the New Year. Criticism of Bellingham’s reduction in output, therefore, is difficult to manifest.

It is also worth remembering that Bellingham is still just 20, has only been in Spain for nine months, and finds himself playing an entirely new position. Still, if it’s numbers that rule the Ballon d’Or conversation, then his are starting to falter slightly.

Crucial weeks ahead

And in the eyes of Ballon d’Or voters, at least, this is a crucial few weeks. Recent history has shown that the trophy is essentially secured over the spring and early summer – but can also be thrown away. For all of the talk that the honour should be based off year-round success, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that those who vote seem to have short memories, and use what happens at the end of campaigns, as well as in summer tournaments, to make their decisions.

Benzema’s 2022 campaign, for example, was built off a Champions League run in which he single-handedly dragged Madrid to a number of memorable European wins. Luka Modric, in 2018, did largely the same, his midfield orchestration and subsequent World Cup performances for Croatia earning him the nod. Even the Lionel Messi-Cristiano Ronaldo duopoly ultimately came down to who performed more effectively in April and May when silverware is on the line.

The same, then, will go for Bellingham, whose credentials will undoubtedly – fairly or otherwise – be determined by the outcome of the next months.

Toughest draw possible

Bellingham’s Ballon d’Or campaign, then, arguably starts this week with the visit of Manchester City to the Bernabeu. Pep Guardiola’s team aren’t quite the juggernaut that won the treble last year, but they’re getting close. Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne remain elite performers, while Phil Foden is enjoying the best season of his career. Throw in the usual excellence of Rodri, and total class of Bernardo Silva, and the Cityzens are just about favourites to win the Champions League again.

Bellingham will not be alone in his efforts to take City down in the quarter-finals, as Madrid have weapons all over the pitch, and a strong spine that will be able to keep the Premier League champions at bay for a time. But on the biggest nights, it’s the razor-sharp edges and crucial difference-makers that ultimately count, and for Madrid, that has to be Bellingham.

He has already shown he is capable of turning in a number of signature showings, but producing a game-changing display at this stage of the Champions League, against the side who many feel will be lifting the trophy at Wembley in June, might just restore his sole claim to football’s biggest individual honour.

If Madrid crash out, however, then Bellingham’s absence from the final throes of club football’s most popular competition will undoubtedly hurt his Ballon d’Or candidacy. Though Madrid are well on course to win La Liga, few voters are tuning in to the Spanish top-flight each week, and thus the midfielder would need to find another route to show himself on the biggest stage possible in the final months of the season.