Five reasons Borussia Dortmund will beat AC Milan in the UEFA Champions League

1) High-end Brandt

Julian Brandt has been in fine form for Borussia Dortmund at the start of the 2023/24 campaign, with a goal and four assists from his six Bundesliga games resulting in a contribution every 99 minutes he has played.

Able to operate in midfield or attack, Brandt has also averaged five shot-creating actions per game over the last year, putting him in the top ninth percentile among positional peers across Europe’s five major leagues per UEFA coefficient.

Brandt has previously found the target against the likes of Inter Milan and Sevilla in the Champions League, and assisted against Barcelona, and it wouldn’t be safe to bet against another return on Wednesday.

2) Home fortress
The Signal Iduna Park has a capacity of 81,365, one Dortmund have maxed out for most of the last decade – coronavirus pandemic aside – giving them the largest average attendance in world football.

The Südtribüne which houses the fabled Yellow Wall caters for nearly 25,000 fans alone – making one stand bigger than three Bundesliga stadiums and six in Serie A, and no team has taken three points away from Dortmund’s home since Werder Bremen edged them 3-2, 25 games ago.

Bayern Munich, Manchester City and Chelsea are among the teams to have come up short there since. “If you’re the enemy, it crushes you, but if you have her at your back… it’s a fantastic feeling,” ex-Dortmund goalkeeper Roman Weidenfeller once said, and so it has proved.

3) Reus resurgence
If Brandt is starring for Dortmund this season, Marco Reus has done so for many more. Indeed, he is the club’s record scorer in the Champions League with 22 goals – and 19 assists – from his 60 appearances in the competition.

Reus stepped back from captaincy duty at Dortmund this summer – Emre Can picked up the armband with Gregor Kobel and Niklas Süle acting as his understudies – but he can still lead by example.

Reus has been impacting games recently. He came off the bench to get the final goal in Dortmund’s 4-2 win at Freiburg on Matchday 4, struck late on to lift BVB past Wolfsburg the following week, and netted again in the weekend’s 3-1 win at Hoffenheim.

With four career goals against record European champions Real Madrid, Reus’ big-game credentials are assured, and he could be key.

4) Inside track on Pulisic
If Brandt and Reus are Dortmund’s main creative forces from midfield, Milan’s is also familiar to Schwarzgelben fans, with a certain Christian Pulisic helping pull the strings for Wednesday’s visitors.

The USMNT star joined Milan from Chelsea this summer, having left the Signal Iduna Park for Stamford Bridge in 2019 with 19 goals, 26 assists, 127 games and a DFB Cup under his belt.

But Edin Terzić knows the American particularly well, having been assistant coach at BVB for Pulisic’s final two years there. If anyone knows how to put the brakes on the American, it should be him.

5) Milan injuries
For all of Dortmund’s strengths, Milan’s absentee list will make for unpleasant reading for Rossoneri fans. First-choice goalkeeper Mike Maigan is struggling with a thigh injury and Pierre Kalulu – who formed a fine central defensive partnership with Fikayo Tomori last season – hasn’t played since September due to muscular problems.

To make matters worse, defensive midfielder Ismaël Bennacer has undergone knee surgery and Rade Krunić, his stand-in thus far this season faces a race against time with a muscular strain

Dortmund might be without Marcel Sabitzer, but BVB should be closer to full strength than their opponents come Wednesday.